Do Biden’s Bad Numbers Open Door to Alternatives?

Haisten Willis of the Washington Examiner probes Democrats’ prospects for the 2024 presidential contest.

President Joe Biden may yet face a tougher-than-expected primary campaign before turning attention to his Republican rivals.

Biden has to date drawn two intraparty challengers, self-help guru Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Neither is considered a serious threat, but they’re drawing a surprising amount of support in early polling.

“I’m just not tracking that,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told the Washington Examiner’s Christian Datoc when asked if Biden was annoyed or frustrated that Williamson had jumped into the race.

She then politely brushed off the campaign.

“If I had a — what is it called? — a little globe here, a crystal ball, then I could tell you. A Magic 8 Ball, whatever, if I could feel her aura,” Jean-Pierre continued. “But I just don’t have anything to share on that.”

Yet polling shows Biden faces a tougher challenge than Jean-Pierre’s response indicates. An April 27 Emerson College poll found that Biden had earned 70% support, with Kennedy drawing 21% and Williamson 8%.

By historical standards, those are exceptionally high numbers.

Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton all faced only token primary challengers, none of whom received more than 5.5% of the vote, and each of those presidents got a second term.

The primary challengers to George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter all saw primary challengers drawing double-digit support, and all lost their reelection bids.

Biden should be bolstered by the fact that neither Kennedy nor Williamson has ever held elected office before, and voters may not be familiar with them.

“My guess is with Kennedy, they are reacting to the name, and I doubt they know much about him or his anti-vaccine crusade,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “They hear Robert. F. Kennedy, and all they can see is Bobby Kennedy. The more they get to know him, I predict the numbers will start to go down.”